The results for retail trends across the state are in! Nebraska Public Power District’s (NPPD) Economic Development team gathered data to compare the retail trends across the state of Nebraska. A retail pull factor is calculated using Net Taxable Retail Sales and current population data. This factor measures whether a region is gaining or losing sales to other regions. A retail pull factor above one indicates that a region is attracting retail sales from other regions. A retail pull factor below one indicates that a region is losing sales to other regions.
The data compiled showed that in 2023, 14 of the 93 counties in Nebraska are above the average retail pull factor of greater than one, which indicates that those counties are performing better than average in retail. These counties include Antelope, Boone, Buffalo, Cherry, Dodge, Douglas, Garfield, Hall, Hooker, Keith, Lincoln, Madison, Red Willow, and York.
As shown on the below map, a common factor among counties that are at the average or above the average pull factor, is their location along the Interstate 80 corridor which creates an easy access and results in higher sales tax collections.
The below map also compares the retail pull factor between 2019 to 2023. Boone County, which is a retail served county, showed the largest increase of 51.06% year over year from 2019 to 2023 change in per capita sales. York County reported a positive change of 29.18%, followed by Madison County with a 26.45% increase in per capita sales from 2019 to 2023.
Lisa Hurley, Executive Director of the York County Development Corporation said, “York County owes its high retail pull due to the location on the City of York’s location on Interstate 80 and Highway 81, the business district that has developed around that intersection, the level of business development and construction. We also have a strong retail pull from Osceola on the north and south to the state line. York’s district is a frequent stopping point for travelers on I-80. Add the traffic flow, from the south to the collaboration and marketing being done is resulting in year after year records in sales tax collections.”
Overall, Nebraska and NPPD’s Service Territory has seen growth in Net Taxable Retail Sales since the end of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to Dr. Melissa Trueblood, NPPD Economist, “Overall in Nebraska, Net Taxable Retail Sales increased 15.2 percent between 2019 and 2023. Over the year, Net Taxable Retail Sales are up 2.2 percent from 2022 to 2023. In the NPPD Service Territory, which includes 84 out of the 93 counties in Nebraska, Net Taxable Retail Sales increased 25.7 percent between 2019 and 2023. Over the 2022-to-2023-year period, Net Taxable Retail Sales in Nebraska increased 2.6 percent. While Net Tax Retail Sales continue to grow in Nebraska and in the NPPD Territory since the end of the COVID-19 Pandemic, their growth has slowed. Retail Sales are still expected to grow in the future but may be hampered by continued inflation, political uncertainty with the upcoming presidential election, labor shortages, and continued logistics and supply chain issues.”
Maps created by Tricia Moyer, NPPD Economic Research Specialist
Data Sources: US Census, Nebraska Department of Revenue